Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
